Excitement to the Max

As we all know by now, our beloved, yet flawed Knicks team will be entering the first round of the NBA playoffs playing the Miami Heat.  As we entered the final weeks of the regular season there were a lot of matchup speculation and many tried to pick the best team for the Knicks to meet in the first round.  Like it or not, it will be the Miami Heat.  This may not have been the matchup everyone thought was best, but it is definitely the matchup all of us want to see.  I am not going to dive too deep into the pairings, whether Melo and LBJ cancel each other out, if Amare has an advantage over Bosh, or even if Shumpert and Chandler can maintain the level of excellent defense they have exhibited all season.  You can read all those articles on ESPN.  The only thing that I hope the Knicks work on is their third quarter play.  This is what gave away the game on April 3rd versus Indiana.  It is when Miami pulled away on April 15th and almost lost leads on April 17th against Boston and then 5 days later against Atlanta.  I do not mind losing hard fought games by a point or being blown out by twenty, but it is painful to watch your team build a comfortable lead and then have the other team come out of the gates in the second half to close the gap.  If the Knicks can fix that, they have a chance against any team they face. 

I see most predictions stating that Miami will win in either 5 or 6.  I will analyze it game by game, working backwards starting with game 7.  The playoff format will be 2-2-1-1-1 with Miami being the first and last stop.

GAME 7.  I do not see the Knicks winning this one in Miami.  They have not been consistent enough on the road to give me faith in this.  Additionally, Lebron plays New York really well, and we will not see a LBJ collapse in the fourth quarter on this one.  However, this will be a crazy game and it will come down to the wire.  I expect a couple thrown, but missed, elbows (of course unintentional).  Wade will pull it out in the end, probably on free throws. 

GAME 6.  How can any analyst predict the Knicks would lose the series in game 6?  If they make it this far, the collective will of New York fans will single-handedly take this game.  There is no way they would allow anything otherwise.  There is nothing more to say on this one.

GAME 5.  Like game 7, I do not see the Knicks winning this one.  In the unlikely scenario that they are up 3-1, the Knicks will not have the wherewithal to clinch it in game 5 when they can wait until game 6 at home (they will want to win it in front of the Garden crowd almost as much as the fans).  If the situation were reversed and Miami was up 3-1, no way do they want to go back to the garden.  They need to finish the Knicks off and start worrying about the next round, which will probably be up against a young Pacers team with no fear because they will fall into the "just happy to be there" case.   If it is tied 2-2, Miami's playing at home and its playoff experience will pull them through.  

GAME 4.  This is a 50/50 game.  Too hard to tell.  Either Miami runs the Knicks out of the Garden or the Novak/JR Smith discount double check unconscious three pointers go wild and they shoot lights out.  Gun to head, I would probably pick Miami on this one.

GAME 3.  This is game 6 except with slightly more anticipation and a hint of desperation for the MSG crowd.  Going with the Knicks on this one.  If they even show a remote sign of slipping, the fans will get the Knicks back on track.  The fans think this team is good enough that they will never allow the players to NOT meet their expectations.

GAME 2.  No way Miami loses this one.  If they are up a game, they will not want to go back to New York tied 1-1, with the Garden crowd potentially swinging the momentum in the Knicks's favor.  If they lose the first game, they will play with even more desperation so that they will not be swept.  Lebron gets a triple double with at least 40 points on this one.

GAME 1.  As you may have gleaned from the previous paragraphs, this sets the tone for the rest of the series.  I do not know what to expect.  I am so excited for this game that I cannot form any rational thoughts.  This is a 50/50 game yet again.  Yes, Miami is playing at home, but I anticipate the New York fans to be so loud that it will be hard to tell which team is at home if not for the logo at center court.  So many variables to this game.  Do the Knicks come out guns blazing, three pointers at the ready, or will they come out flat?  With two superstars, a stellar defense and the expectations of the biggest market in the NBA, do they become the heroes that they were signed to be?  I cannot sit still to even blog about it. 

To recap, from game 1 to 7, I have 50/50, Miami, Knicks, 50/50, Miami, Knicks, Miami.  This means Miami in 5 or 7; or the Knicks in 6.  I feel Miami in 5 is the lowest probability.  The Knicks have too much pride and Carmelo has been playing too well recently to win only one game, especially playing two games at home and in a Miami market that has been kind to them in the past.  That leaves Knicks in 6 or Miami in 7.  Honestly, if I were a betting man, I would have to go with Miami in 7.  I do not think the Knicks have established enough of an identity to take the pivotal games.  They are a team that loves to hover around the .500 mark so they will allow Miami to come back if they have a lead.  But...if Carmelo transcends and becomes the player we want him to be...if he maintains his offensive firepower, keeps playing defense and rebounding...takes that next step like Pierce did in '08, Nowitzki in '11...then he will be the greatest Knick ever in my eyes.  Screw it, Knicks in 6, and then a march to the finals.  Mark it (for now, and I will update soon to boast or make a lot of excuses).